Alan Turing Predicts Machine Learning And The Impact Of Artificial Intelligence On Jobs Posted on : Feb 22 - 2017

This week's milestones in the history of technology include Alan Turing anticipating today’s deep learning by intelligent machines and concerns about the impact of AI on jobs, Clifford Stoll anticipating Mark Zuckerberg, and establishing the FCC and NPR.

February 20, 1947

Alan Turing gives a talk at the London Mathematical Society in which he declares that “what we want is a machine that can learn from experience.”

Anticipating today’s enthusiasm about machine learning and deep learning, Alan Turing described how intelligent machines will work:

Let us suppose we have set up a machine with certain initial instruction tables, so constructed  that  these  tables  might  on  occasion,  if  good  reason  arose, modify  those  tables.  One can imagine that after the  machine  had  been  operating  for  some  time,  the  instructions  would  have  altered  out  of  all  recognition,  but  nevertheless still be such that one would have to admit that the machine was still doing very worthwhile calculations. Possibly it might still be getting results of the type desired when the machine  was  first  set  up,  but  in  a  much  more  efficient  manner.  In  such  a  case  one  would  have  to admit that the progress of the machine had not been foreseen when its original instructions were put in. It would be like a pupil who had learnt much from his master, but had added much more by his own work.  When  this  happens  I  feel  that  one  is  obliged  to  regard  the  machine  as  showing  intelligence.

Turing also anticipated the debate over the impact of artificial intelligence on jobs: Does it destroy jobs (automation) or does it help humans do their jobs better and do more interesting things (augmentation)? Turing speculated that digital computers will replace some of the calculation work done at the time by human computers. But “the main bulk of the work done by these [digital] computers will however consist of problems which could not have been tackled by hand computing because of the scale of the undertaking.” (Also anticipating today’s most popular phrase in Silicon Valley: “At-scale.”)

Anticipating the augmentation aspect of the debate over AI and jobs, Turing suggested that humans will be needed to assess the accuracy of the calculations done by digital computers. At the same time (similar to many of today’s commentators on the subject), he also predicted the automation of high-value jobs (held by what he called “masters” as opposed to the “slaves” operating the computer) and the possible defense mechanisms by what today we call “knowledge workers”:

The masters are liable to  get  replaced  because  as  soon  as  any  technique becomes  at  all  stereotyped  it  becomes  possible  to  devise  a  system  of  instruction  tables which will enable the electronic computer to do it for itself…

They may be unwilling to let their jobs be stolen from them in this way. In that case they would surround the whole of  their work  with  mystery  and  make  excuses,  couched  in  well-chosen  gibberish,  whenever  any  dangerous  suggestions  were  made.

Turing concluded his lecture with a plea for expecting intelligent machines to be no more intelligent than humans:

One must therefore not expect a machine to do a very great deal of building up of instruction tables on its own. No man adds very much to the body of knowledge, why should we expect more of a machine? Putting the same point  differently,  the  machine  must  be  allowed  to  have  contact  with  human  beings  in  order  that  it  may  adapt  itself  to  their  standards.

February 21, 1878

George Willard Coy and a group of investors from the District Telephone Company of New Haven, Connecticut, publish the world’s first telephone directory, a single sheet with only 50 names.

February 22, 1924

Calvin Coolidge delivers the first political speech by a sitting president to be broadcast on the radio. It was carried on five stations, with an estimated five million listeners. As radio broadcasting took off in the early 1920s, Silent Cal (it was said that he could be silent in five languages) used it on many occasions. For example, he also delivered, on December 6, 1923, the first Presidential address to Congress to be broadcast on the radio.

February 23, 1927

President Calvin Coolidge signs the 1927 Radio Act, creating the Federal Radio Commission, forerunner of the Federal Communications Commission (established in 1934). The Radio Act of 1927 was based on a number of assumptions: that the equality of transmission facilities, reception, and service were worthy political goals; the notion that the spectrum belonged to the public but could be licensed to individuals; and that the number of channels on the spectrum was limited when compared to those who wanted access to it.

February 24, 2010

On “a day that lives in social-media history,” Conan O’Brien (banned at the time from TV by his separation agreement with NBC) sends his first tweet: “Today I interviewed a squirrel in my backyard and then threw to commercial. Somebody help me.”

February 25, 1995

Astronomer and author Clifford Stoll writes in Newsweek:

After two decades online, I'm perplexed. It's not that I haven't had a gas of a good time on the Internet. I've met great people and even caught a hacker or two. But today, I'm uneasy about this most trendy and oversold community. Visionaries see a future of telecommuting workers, interactive libraries and multimedia classrooms. They speak of electronic town meetings and virtual communities. Commerce and business will shift from offices and malls to networks and modems. And the freedom of digital networks will make government more democratic.

Baloney. Do our computer pundits lack all common sense? The truth in no online database will replace your daily newspaper, no CD-ROM can take the place of a competent teacher and no computer network will change the way government works.

On February 16, 2017, Mark Zuckerberg published a letter to the Facebook community  in which he said:

Today we are close to taking our next step. Our greatest opportunities are now global -- like spreading prosperity and freedom, promoting peace and understanding, lifting people out of poverty, and accelerating science. Our greatest challenges also need global responses -- like ending terrorism, fighting climate change, and preventing pandemics. Progress now requires humanity coming together not just as cities or nations, but also as a global community.

February 26, 1970

National Public Radio (NPR) is created in Washington DC by the non-profit Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Today, NPR has 986 member and associate stations in the U.S. with a total of 36.6 million weekly listeners.  Source